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PARSIPPANY, NJ, July 12, 2012 – Following several years of slowing growth, the global market for medicines is poised to rebound from an expected low point of 3–4 percent growth in 2012 to 5–7 percent in 2016, according to a new forecast issued by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics.
The report, The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook through 2016, found that annual global spending on medicines will rise from $956 billion in 2011 to nearly $1.2 trillion in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate of 3-6 percent. Growth in annual global spending is forecast to more than double by 2016 to as much as $70 billion, up from a $30 billion pace this year, driven by volume increases in the pharmerging markets and an uptick in spending in developed nations.
Additionally, patent expiries, which will peak in 2012, as well as increased cost-containment actions by payers, will constrain branded medicine spending growth through 2016, at 0-3 percent. Developed markets are expected to experience their lowest annual growth this year, at less than 1 percent or $3 billion, and then rebound to $18-20 billion in annual growth in the 2014-16 period.
“As health systems around the world grapple with macroeconomic pressures and the demand for expanded access and improved outcomes, medicines will play an even more vital role in patient care over the next five years,” says Murray Aitken, executive director, IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. “The trillion-dollar spending on medicines we forecast for 2016 represents a rebound in growth that will accentuate the challenges of access and affordability facing those who consume and pay for healthcare around the world.”
In its latest analysis, the IMS Institute identifies the following dynamics:
The IMS Institute report, The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook through 2016, including additional findings and details on methodology, is available at www.theimsinstitute.org.